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Saturday, March 08, 2008

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The FX interbank market is a global network of the world�s banks with no centralized location for trading. Much of the business is conducted over the-phone or electronically bank-to-bank. The FX market is a 24-hour-per-day market during the FX business week. The day starts in Asia, extends over to Europe and then into the U.S. daytime trading hours. Currencies are traded around the world, around the clock, from Monday morning (Sunday afternoon Chicago/New York time) in New Zealand/Asia to the close of the business week on Friday afternoon in Chicago/New York.
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Once Soros of Quantum Fund hit the nail on the head with his theory of reflexivity in the market and that is exactly how these players work in the market. That rather romantic tool of daily candlestick chart is useful because whenever some players start positioning to start or stop short-term moves in Yen market, say several hundred pips, for whatever reasons, it reveals their intention to the market, more often than not. It sounds so weird to say tens of yards are spent relying on indicators so primitive like hand-drawn candlestick charts, but that is the truth in Yen market. Same as millions of soldiers risking their lives depending on how their generals draw up the battle plan with their cheap red and blue pencils in their operation room desk. Crazy world, I would say, but that is the fact. And as you say, battle is a battle and those ones who make their first move with their candlestick may not always win either.

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Forex Knowledge
Through studies and research, a trader faces the task of making decisions to put this knowledge and system into practice. Then, how many traders can honestly say they can commit their ranch when the trade is suggested by their own system (given that trading is just a chance game) and let the profit run for weeks and months when their system tells them, and how many can manage to cut the loss as a routine process when the situation arise. It all sounds so easy when saying it but so difficult when doing it affecting real money in the market. I still do not sleep well when I am running position because even if the profits are running into a few hundred dollars and the system is telling you to carry on, there is no guarantee that the profit will turn into a yard or two in a month time, and it may even turn into a loss in a day or two when something unexpected happens. A painstaking process in real sense. The pain is not knowing what will happen in the future and in fear of losing. So at the end of the day, assuming one has decent trading system and market knowledge and decent info, it is ultimately how disciplined and how well that trader can take the pain of making right decisions at the right time that decides the outcome of the trades. Hence I call trading a mind game.

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